OPINION | Who Will Control Kolkata? Municipal Election Set To Test TMC And Opposition

After the most tragic Durga Puja Kolkata has witnessed in recent memory, where 19 people died in a stampede at the Chorbagan Sarbojanin Durgotsab on October 17 amid rain, a narrow exit and a panic-inducing announcement, another poll battle is knocking at the door. That is the Kolkata Corporation elections, the civic poll of the city.

This election will be a very interesting one to watch out for because after the Bharatiya Janata Party won the historic election of West Bengal, securing 207 seats in the 294-member assembly with results declared on May 4, 2026, and Suvendu Adhikari taking oath as Chief Minister on May 9. Historically, the Kolkata Municipality region has been a stronghold of Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress. Even when the CPI(M) was in power before, the TMC won the Kolkata Municipal Corporation election, and veteran TMC leader late Subrata Mukherjee became the mayor of Kolkata. However, after the BJP came to power, a lot of things have changed over time.

The Trinamool Congress has been broken into three parts: the part led by Mamata Banerjee is indeed in a poor shape, with very few leaders in its fold and contesting as Mamata All India Trinamool Congress; the rebel faction led by Ritabrata Banerjee, in terms of MLA support and corporators, has many leaders and operates as Democratic Trinamool Congress; there is the NCPI, which is another rebel faction of the TMC formed with members of parliament of the TMC, including Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, Sudip Bandyopadhyay, Satabdi Roy and others, and is now a significant ally of the BJP in the NDA at the centre with negligible ground presence. There is also the Left and Congress. It is also important to acknowledge that civic polls are very localised in nature.

The booth-level power, the ward-level power, the control over the local clubs, and the control over the Durga Puja committees matter a lot. In the past few months, Kolkata witnessed an aggressive BJP takeover of these clubs, Durga Puja committees and so on. At the same time, the Trinamoolification of the BJP at the booth level is continuing, where local TMC strongmen, along with their supporters, are shifting towards the BJP. That is why this will be an election of power and opposition.

The Crucial Timing

The timing of this election is very crucial because, on the one hand, it is one of the first electoral challenges post-assembly victory to the Bharatiya Janata Party and Suvendu Adhikari. On the other hand, it is also important to acknowledge that this election will take place at a time when there is a growing sentiment against the Bharatiya Janata Party across India, starting from the NEET protest to now the Election Commission protest. The Gen Z protest and discontent are clear indications of growing of anti-incumbancy and in the urban areas the effect of these are the most.

It is also important to acknowledge that this election is taking place at a time when Kolkata witnessed one of the most tragic incidents in Durga Puja ever. It is clear that it was a failure of crowd management under the government, which has an impact on Kolkata. Whether it will impact the poll or not is something to be seen. On the other hand, there are also issues like bulldozer action against book stalls, led by a Left Front attack against Jadavpur University, SRFTI, and other institutions. All these issues are important because this election will take place in this kind of situation. That is why the time is crucial.

BJP's Booth-Level Test

Here, it is important to acknowledge that the victory of the BJP in the West Bengal Assembly election did not fully take place because of the organisational machinery or the strength of the Bharatiya Janata Party alone. The anti-incumbency against Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress was massive due to corruption, misgovernance, growing incidents of violence against women and others, and the stagnant situation of West Bengal in terms of unemployment and other issues. 

This is why this election will be a test of whether the BJP really has an organisation at the booth level in Kolkata or not. A lot of Trinamoolification at the ground is taking place. It is an important question to understand why, on the ground level, the BJP is allowing Trinamoolification. A section of BJP leaders are protesting against this, but on the other hand, in many cases, top leadership like Suvendu Adhikari and others have somewhat hinted towards normalisation of taking non-tainted TMC leaders at the national level as well. 

The BJP has openly welcomed Rajya Sabha MPs of the TMC who resigned from the party, including Sushmita Dev, Sukhendu Sekhar Ray and Prakash Chik Baraik, who joined and were fielded for Upper House bypolls. That means, somewhere or the other, BJP has a dependence on people coming from TMC into its fold, and that is because of the weakness of the organisation. This is why how much Trinamoolification on the grassroots really happens across Kolkata in this election, and based on this, how the BJP performs, will be a crucial thing to watch out for.

Clubs, Committees And Local Power

In Kolkata civic elections, historically, the local clubs and the Durga Puja committees play an important role. That is why, after coming to power in West Bengal, BJP has aggressively worked to take over these clubs from the Trinamool and also the Durga Puja committees. One of the biggest examples is the Chorbagan Sarbojanin itself. Jayanta Banerjee, earlier a key figure close to Kartik Banerjee, brother of Mamata Banerjee, was removed and forced to step aside from the club because of the change in power. In that place, top BJP leadership became the key persons of that Puja committee, including Debdeep Adhikari, nephew of Suvendu Adhikari, as chief patron, local Jorasanko MLA Bijoy Ojha as chairman, and Tamaghna Ghosh, north Kolkata district president, as chief adviser. This is a story about many other Durga Puja contexts. That is why, locally, the power tension became very important, and it is important to acknowledge how much power the BJP on the ground has really captured in terms of clubs and Durga Puja committees. This is also a test in this civic poll and something to watch out for.

The BJP-NCPI-TMC Rebel Equation

In this civic election, a very important aspect will be the political equation of the BJP. What is something the BJP wants in the politics of West Bengal? It is very clear that the BJP played a very important role in breaking the TMC. Now, the NCPI, which is the direct ally of the BJP, has zero ground support because it mostly consists of MPs who have very little popularity on the ground and won the election in 2024 just because of Mamata Banerjee’s support. 

That is why today they want the BJP’s support to fight the local body election, because they understand that if they fight individually, there is no hope for them. Whether the BJP will really join hands with the NCPI is not known, and this is something to watch because it is, or it will be, a rare occasion in national politics where an NDA ally will either not fight the election or fight individually without an alliance with the BJP in a state election. 

On the other hand, what the TMC rebel faction under Ritabrata Banerjee really wants is this: they have certain corporators in their camp, and it is very likely that they will fight alone. It is very clear that this faction is close to the BJP and has the backing of the BJP on the ground as well. 

That is why it will be an important thing to watch how much support this faction gets in this election, which will determine the political future of this faction as well.

Possible TMC-Congress-Left Understanding

Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress still has support on the ground because the cadre base which the TMC has, whatever is remaining, is still with Mamata Banerjee, because TMC without Mamata Banerjee is nothing. But it is important to also understand that, in the changing political situation of West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee has become very lenient not only towards the Congress but also towards the left. 

The INDIA bloc at the centre is trying to show a unified image, and in this regard, one of the rarest things has happened: the general secretary of the CPI(M), M.A. Baby, had even a telephonic conversation with Mamata Banerjee. This is one of the first such conversations between a general secretary of the CPI(M) and Mamata, and that is why this is a crucial thing to watch out for. 

On the other hand, the Congress at the centre is completely supporting Mamata because of the political future of the INDIA bloc. In this kind of a situation, in this local body election, there are hints from the Congress that they are also kind of softening towards Mamata. On the other hand, after the Chorbagan incident, there was even a local protest which was organised by all three political parties together. There are different state civic body elections, for example in Chandigarh and others, where political parties who are opposing each other in different elections as well have come together for these kinds of polls. There is a history of the AAP and the Congress coming together in civic elections of Chandigarh and others. This is also a crucial thing for this civic election to watch out for.

(Sayantan Ghosh is the author of two books, Battleground Bengal and The Aam Aadmi Party, and teaches at St. Xavier’s College (Autonomous), Kolkata.)