Israel’s Political Turmoil And Gadi Eisenkot’s Predicament

Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s invitation to Gadi Eisenkot, the centrist former military chief and leader of the Yashar (Straight) party, to form a government following the country’s historic October 27 general elections ought not to be overstated. To be sure, his bloc commands 48 seats in the new Knesset, against 46 for the religious ultra-nationalist coalition headed by the political dinosaur and Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, the 77-year-old Benjamin Netanyahu. Conversely, the beleaguered leader’s Likud has emerged as the single largest party with 27 seats—fewer than in the outgoing parliament—compared to 21 for Eisenkot’s Yashar.

Challenges In Forming A Coalition

Eisenkot’s emergence as the first choice in President Herzog’s explorations at installing a government would prove advantageous, assuming that he is a savvy negotiator in the fractious new Knesset that was sworn in on Tuesday. A first major test of his clout would be to secure the election of Matan Kahana as the new speaker on November 17. While the Arab-led Joint List alliance has welcomed Yashar’s choice for the nomination, Israel’s finance minister has bluntly told Kahana to reject the offer if his election depended upon the support of Arab legislators. A foretaste of the bitter confrontation among rival parties was in evidence during the inaugural session when Netanyahu decried Arab legislators as terrorists, while Eisenkot countered that the premier was unfit to govern.

In the ultimate analysis, the divergent parties within Eisenkot’s bloc necessarily have to strike delicate and difficult compromises to coexist in a coalition; a failure will breathe life into Netanyahu’s irrepressible ambitions for political survival for another term. The biggest gamble of them all, even in the event the Likud leader is outmanoeuvred over the next 6 weeks but without any prospect of a new government, would be another general election early in the New Year. That would amount to frittering away the immense accomplishment of a record voter turnout in the October 27 ballot and the unprecedented gains Israel’s small and fragmented Arab parties notched up.

Political Red Lines And Roadblocks

Eisenkot has vowed to spare no efforts to establish a ruling coalition, characterising Israel’s current international standing under Netanyahu as a “dangerous diplomatic tsunami”, more so after the US midterms. He has specified clear red lines for constituent parties in his potential coalition, including respect for the sovereignty of Israel as an independent Jewish state and declaring Hamas a terrorist organisation. The United Arab List, a possible ally in an Eisenkot government, has been somewhat tentative in relation to the latter precondition. Meanwhile, the refusal of Avigder Liberman’s “Israel Our Home”, a right-wing secular party, to consider any cohabitation with Arab parties could stymie his efforts to secure the magical 61 seats for a majority. The biggest roadblock to building a coalition is the guarantee sought by ultra-Orthodox parties to be kept out of compulsory conscription; a difficult concession amid Israel’s seemingly interminable wars. For now, Eisenkot’s position appears most unenviable.

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