Editorial: Brazil’s poll outcome a blow to Trump

Brazilian leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s return to power— securing a fourth term in office—sends a strong message that goes beyond the Latin American country. His convincing victory over Flávio Bolsonaro, his right-wing challenger, is widely seen as a loss to United States President Donald Trump, who had embraced the Bolsonaro family and the region’s rising right. Lula had often defiantly clashed with Trump, and his emphatic win came as a striking rebuke to the conservative surge sweeping Latin America. It also bucked a wider trend in which voters have punished incumbents. Major countries in the region, including Argentina, Chile and Colombia, now have conservative leaders at the helm. However, Lula’s new term, set to begin on 5 January 2027, will start amid significant constraints, both at home and abroad, including animosity from Trump. This marks the first leftist victory following seven straight wins by right-wing leaders in the region over the last 18 months. A stalwart of Brazilian politics, Lula is credited with lifting millions out of poverty through social welfare programmes during his earlier terms as president. However, his popularity waned during his third term as he struggled to address concerns over crime and the economy. His return to power is a blow to the Trump administration’s policy. The White House regards Latin America as an area of US sphere of influence, with the Trump administration keen to have leaders in power who support its policies, including on defence, security and trade.

As he prepares for his fourth term, Lula, 80, faces a daunting task of leading a polarised nation grappling with a mounting debt crisis, soaring prices and growing fears over organised crime. It is going to be all the more challenging for him at every turn after voters elected an overwhelming number of Bolsonaro’s political allies to the Legislature. Lula has resisted Washington’s strategy to project military and economic might across the region, pushing back against Trump as he has tried to squeeze Brazil with tariffs and sanctions. On the other hand, Bolsonaro, a Trump supporter, had promised to join the US-led regional security alliance and offered Brazil’s vast critical mineral deposits as a way to reduce American reliance on China. For many in the polarised country, Lula’s strong showing signalled that voters were not yet ready to give up on the leftist leader’s vision for Brazil. The poll results also exposed the country’s deep divisions, highlighting how Bolsonaro’s bold proposals to tackle organised crime, rising prices and a sluggish economy resonated with millions of working-class Brazilians. On his part, Lula banked on his broader political legacy built on decades of social welfare programmes. Though Brazil’s economy has grown modestly in the last few years, rising household debts and an affordability crisis have left many ordinary Brazilians feeling worse off.